Orgies are safer than driving

April 9, 2007

The odds of dying in a motor vehicle accident in your lifetime is 1%. Since you aren’t worried about driving, you certainly shouldn’t be worried about an activity with a lower risk of dying. The odds(pdf) of a woman catching AIDS from a single act of vaginal sex with a condom, when the guy doesn’t know his HIV status, is 1 in 5 million! Fellatio without a condom is approximately the same odds. For men it is 1 in 10 million, so let’s just worry about women. If a woman boinks 1000 men w/ a condom, the odds of getting AIDS is 0.02% [1 - (1 - 1/5000000)^1000)]. These are actually upper bounds, because AIDS is overwhelmingly trapped in small subgroups: poor blacks, drug users and gay men. If you wish to throw a swinger sex party (my page hits will soar now!), you can require that participants show a valid negative AIDS test within the previous year. This will reduce the single sex act odds to almost 1 in 100 million. Actually, it’s slightly higher because there is an infinitesimally small chance that someone caught AIDS between the test and the orgy. If a woman engages in 10 sex acts at an orgy (fellatio and vaginal sex), the odds of getting AIDS is 1 in 10 million. And if she attends 100 orgies in her lifetime, the odds of getting AIDS is 0.001%, which is 1000X safer than driving a car. The odds of being struck by lightning in your lifetime is 0.02%. Again, the odds of getting AIDS is even lower if the orgy participants are not in a high risk subgroup. Even if you forget to use a condom occasionally, the risks don’t go up very much. And remember, we are comparing the risk of dying in a car versus living with a manageable disease. FYI: The risk of transmitting Herpes type II with a condom is practically 0. It goes to 0 if you just check for any visible lesions. All other STDs are also low risk and are treatable.

So why are we bombarded with scary messages that equate casual sex with death? There are two main reasons, IMO. First, most people don’t use condoms consistently. If this same woman had 100 orgies without ever using a condom (1/100K), the odds of getting AIDS is 0.1%. That’s still quite low for each person, but it’s a little high from a public policy standpoint. People die in car accidents, but they become a source of disease w/ AIDS. The infection rates would go up over time if everyone engaged in reckless sex. See Africa. Second, AIDS activists must lie to get support and funding for AIDS campaigns. If AIDS activists admitted that this is only a serious problem for high-risk groups (poor blacks, drug users and gay men), there would be no public support for funding. The public doesn’t like druggies and gay men, and has little sympathy for poor blacks. So they had to scare you into believing that even your precious suburban white children might get AIDS. But it’s not true unless your daughter is shagging bi-sexual, black, drug fiend. Of course, with my luck I’ll probably get ebola from a friendly kiss on the cheek. If there’s a God, he certainly hates me.

105 Responses to “Orgies are safer than driving”

  1. WalterSear Says:

    I’m not concerned about AIDS. I’m concerned about herpes.

  2. Brian Says:

    Wow, that’s crazy low, so the recent news of 50% reduction in HIV risk from male circumcision isn’t worth it.

  3. wonderweirdo Says:

    Amen brother! Amen!

  4. Volatile Says:

    Great, so you’ve spun statistics to make it sound like driving is more dangerous than an putting your dick in anything that moves. Anyways, I prefer driving over unwanted children, STDs and my dick falling off.

    “But it’s not true unless your daughter is shagging bi-sexual, black, drug fiend.”

    You are an idiot. /rant

  5. Neal Watzman Says:

    Exactly 86.6% of all statistics are bogus anyhow.

    I think I’d be a little more careful here if I were attending an orgy.

  6. Justin Says:

    Wouldn’t the biggest hazard in an orgy be crossing streams? I believe Dr. Egon Spengler did work in this field.

  7. melfisk Says:

    HAHAHA…. THis made my day! I going home and saying letshave orgys they are so safe!! :)

  8. kellystern Says:

    Makes me want to have an orgy… hmmmm… as long as I don’t have to drive to it…

  9. esteban Says:

    Risk of HIV transmission per contact with HIV+ source person:
    Blood transfusion: 90-100%
    Shared usage of acus (needle’s): 0.67%
    Pinprick injury: 0.3%
    Mucosa contact of semen and/or blood: 0.09%
    Passive anal sex: 0.1 – 3.2 %
    Passive vaginal sex: 0.05 – 0.2 %
    Active vaginal sex: 0.03 – 0.09 %
    Active anal sex: 0.06%
    Passiv oral sex:0.0 – 0.04 %
    (Am J Epidemiol.1999;150:306. NEJM 1997;336:1097. Int J STD&AIDS. 2006;17:81)

  10. Chinedu Says:

    You sound like a bigoted person spreading falsehoods. I won’t even go into your big huge sweeping assumptions about gay men, blacks, etc.

    You really should be promoting clean, hot, passionate sex WITHIN a loving and monogamous MARRIAGE, which is the safest (and emotionally healthiest) of all. I should know. But I digress.

    Yes, the chance of catching HIV sounds so low… but what if that one person is YOU?? Numbers mean nothing when YOU’RE the one dying.

    Do me a favor.. go on YouTube and watch this short film called “Sex Party”. And listen closely.

  11. carvdouttawood Says:

    Aren’t people who are sexually free enough psychologically to readily participate in an orgy by definition members of a ‘high risk subgroup’?


  12. Wow, Volatile. Thanks for your tacitly admitting that you had no way to factually refute anything the curmudgeon said.

  13. seizureboy Says:

    Only problem I see is that orgy participants are most likely more sexually active (unless everyone involved is doing it for their first time), and therefore would tend toward the higher end of the statistics in having and therefore transmitting STDs. I’d still rather hump than be stuck in traffic, though.

  14. Bob Says:

    “All other STDs are also low risk and are treatable.”
    Absolutely wrong. Very stupid. Fits well with your bogus statistics.

  15. arcticmyst Says:

    I’m not exactly sure where you get your info considering if you look at the tiny pores in a condom and the aids virus itself, you are looking at an ant standing in a barn door. Maybe you should check up on your percentages.


  16. Well. you’ve done it now…you got all kinds of people pissed off..LOL!

    I choose abstinence, so I don’t have to worry about disease,,,especailly since I have Lupus and NO IMMUNE System…so those odds might be an increased number with me.

    BUT I can tell you this that even with my last husband…he
    didn’t go out into the rain with out his rain coat on!
    NO Rain Dance if no Rain Coat!

    Smiles and world peace,
    Sharon
    ~The Baby Boomer Queen~

  17. pdtnc Says:

    far too much information :D Still an interesting read…

  18. projectshave Says:

    Anyone who has a problem with these numbers can argue with the authors of this study. Out of 4000 page hits, only 15 people clicked on the paper I cited. If you are a ranting lunatic, please don’t post a comment.

    esteban: I looked up that paper. It’s about homosexual risks, which I’ve already explained is a high risk group. Furthermore, those number’s you’ve cited are for HIV+ partners. I cited statistics for when you don’t know their HIV status. The number are completely different and described in that same paper.

  19. Will McGugan Says:

    The chances of the average American being eaten by a lion is probably infinitesimally small, so I suggest to you that you go to the zoo, jump in the lion enclosure and do your best wildebeest impression.

  20. bionerd Says:

    First, like seizureboy said, 1 woman at 100 orgies with 10*sex per orgie only comes out with that statistic assuming that all 1000 partners are not of high-risk groups and are all of population average risk (fairly low promiscuity), which is not a likely statistic for orgie-phils.

    Secondly, aids only fits this statistical game because it’s actually pretty hard to contract, considered one of the hardest mainstream STDs to get infected with from sex due in part to it’s comparativey picky tendency of wanting a specific type of blood cell only and therefore needing to get exchanged from your moist little cavities to your blood supply instead of getting flushed/excreted out as liquids usually do. (Most other mainstream STDs are more efficient than that, so don’t go encouraging idiots to spare the rubber or you’ll have blood on your hands from herps which are still very transferable when lesions are not present. Also, many people can’t afford the meds that would make AIDS treatable; they’re expensive!)

    Third, aside from pharmacuticals and a certain percentage of condem sales, there’s not a lot of money in STD prevention. A much bigger reason for the push on STDs is the devine retribution aspect attributed to them by contemporary religion, especially Christianity, who use them to promote abstinence only protection and fill our little heads with the fears of condom inadequacy.

  21. projectshave Says:

    Furthermore, my comments about high-risk groups is taken straight from a CDC report. It’s not bigoted to want to focus resources on helping people most in need.

    A few comments pointed out that swingers are a high-risk group. That’s right, which is why a negative AIDS test takes care of that issue.

    Finally, I’ve never been to an orgy, nor will I. I agree they tend to fugly. I was surprised by these statistics and wanted to point out that reckless sex is still safer than driving (which no one is worried about).

  22. clicheguevara Says:

    I would just like to say that this post is brilliant.

    Well done.

  23. Non-Volatile RAM Says:

    Originally posted by Volatile:
    “I prefer driving over unwanted children…”

    =|

  24. Martin Says:

    Interesting stuff. I wonder why people are so illogical in their attitude to risk. Hardly anyone fears road accidents, yet most are clearly terrified by STDs, as some of the comments above underscore. Most of us use the public highways, most of us have sex. Under most circumstances, the highways are massively more dangerous.

    I’m just as nuts in my fear of risk, or lack thereof. I smoke cigarettes, even though I know there’s a massive, like 1 in 3 chance that the damn things will kill me while still youngish. But does this bother me much as I light up another?..not really!

    Can you point me in the direction of an orgy please. I think I should try one before the cigarettes get me.

  25. nik Says:

    you didn’t just cite statistics. you interpreted them and came to the conclusion that AIDS isn’t worth bothering, like driving a car. and let me tell you, you’re conclusion is without a doubt friggin STUPID and i wish you had the guts and stop hiding behind the statistics. well, i guess with your luck an african aids-orphan-child-soldier reads the “see africa” comment and kills you, oh wait, he prolly can’t read. that’s why he engages in reckless sex and get’s aids himself. after all, getting aids in africa is only more likely than driving b/c they have so few cars in africa…campaigns that scare you into believing that even your precious suburban white children might get AIDS save a lot of lives so just shut the f**k up

  26. Donnie Darko Says:

    Let’s all go out and get WORKED!!!!

  27. tanglethis Says:

    You should have your orgy guests present a certificate of HPV vaccination as well as that HIV test. HPV can make your life suck.


  28. Way to perpetuate the misconceptions that AIDS is not dangerous and that people don’t need to use protection…


  29. And, more importantly,
    they’re more fun.

  30. DaveM Says:

    The chances of contracting HIV is significantly greater than 1 in 5 Million, seeing that CDC estimated HIV and AIDs cases at 450,000 in the US in 2000, and UNAIDS estimated 5.0 million N*E*W HIV infections occurred in 2001 worldwide.

    Also, if each person increased the number of sexual partners, the odds of contracting HIV geometrically increases. Remember, each additional partner increases the chance of catching a disease since you are essentially sleeping with each of their previous partners.

    Maybe the odds for you contracting HIV/AIDs is 1 in 5,000,000, coinciding with your specific chances to ever getting laid!


  31. [...] WordPress.org AN Interestin Discussion Monday April 09th 2007, 4:37 pm Filed under: Life in general What do you folks think of this? [...]

  32. Orlick Says:

    Do you really think this is whats keeping you from having an orgy?

  33. Talia Says:

    You’ve discussed the issue of AIDS well, but you’ve forgotten that that’s not the only thing people ‘catch’ from sex. There are hoards of other STDs etc. out there, and if they don’t kill you, they’ll make your life either not worth living, or make you wish you were dead.

  34. d2n0 Says:

    I’ll bring condoms to the next orgy I go to. Thanks so much!


  35. [...] Orgies are safer than driving The odds of dying in a motor vehicle accident in your lifetime is 1%. Since you aren’t worried about driving, you […] [...]

  36. magia3e Says:

    I had seen similar stats some time back – that the chance of getting HIV through unprotected sex is actually stupidly small.

    It’s good to see them brought out into the open again.

    But then again, most people are stupid and unless you bash them over the head with a scary message they are likely to ignore it.

    At least the condom manufacturers got something out of it!

  37. mattgunn Says:

    Pretty interesting stuff. Dieing from AIDS is not something on the top of my fear list that’s for sure. It’ll most likely be a) old age, b) heart-attack, c) cancer. Thankfully old-age is the only one common in my family.

    -Matt
    http://www.mattgunn.ca

  38. kjohn Says:

    Given that up to 26% percent of people in some sub saharan African countries are HIV positive I think your comments are irresponsible.

  39. boristhecat Says:

    Well, as a general rule, people drive more frequently than they expose themselves to AIDS or other STDs, so of course they’ll fear driving less, logical or illogical. Simple psychology.

  40. statsbuff Says:

    interesting, if sophomoric statistical conclusions: you’ve neglected the time spent at each activity. the average american spends about 8 hours a month driving (2002 statistics) which would probably exceed the time spent in an orgy, skewing the risk.

  41. scintillatus Says:

    Wow. I am both entertained by your article, the following comments, and the statistic itself.

    10/10 would smirk again.

  42. Greg Donald Says:

    Your fonts are _way_ too small.

  43. Ducker Says:

    Real serious stuff….people who get HIV are very very unlucky bastards by the rate of those odds….

  44. rod. Says:

    Hey!

    Did you hear the latest statistics? It goes like this: 100% of people interviewed who had already played russian roulette DID survive! Conclusion: russian roulette bears no risk!!!!!!!!

    Seriously now: don’t be fooled by statistics. Statistics are no smarter than those trying to fit conclusions to them.

    If you think orgies are safer than driving, then boy… you are a hell of a bad driver.

  45. Steven Says:

    you should include the word ‘naive’ into the gay men part….

    barebacking is disgusting for one thing… and i don’t like my penis touching feces without a wrapper.

  46. pjesus Says:

    Best. Post. Ever.

  47. that one girl Says:

    this is very interesting, though it shocks me that anybody with half a brain and an STD would be taking part in an orgy anyways…

  48. lmai83 Says:

    i agree with kjohn.


  49. [...] Orgies are safer than driving – this perspective pretty much goes against everything I learned in middle school and high school about sex education and AIDS. [...]

  50. eleventyurple Says:

    “The chances of the average American being eaten by a lion is probably infinitesimally small, so I suggest to you that you go to the zoo, jump in the lion enclosure and do your best wildebeest impression.”

    Except in this case, the lion has no teeth, claws and is on a muscle relaxant. On top of that, you’re wearing a kevlar body stocking and the lion has a particular distaste for utter idiots.

    Oh and let’s go to the zoo to have a RANDOM lion encounter. You see, in a case of sexual contact, the “lion” would be the HIV, not the sexual partner(s).

    I don’t agree with how the information was presented in this article, 100 percent, but the above quote is just so completely lame. (and hauntingly familiar)

  51. sometimes i breathe Says:

    Funny article. Orgies can be avoided. You need a car to get to work, school, etc. All the stats really depend heavily on where you live. Besides, 50% of all stats are made on the spot.

  52. elmo76544 Says:

    Last time I checked, HPV is not curable and is a leading risk factor in cerivcal cancer. But hell what do I know?

  53. cherifizzle Says:

    Made me laugh my ass off. Especially since so many people got mad lol.

  54. Robert M. Says:

    I think the point of this post wasn’t to say that AIDS isn’t a concern, it was more to point out the inconsistencies within our sex-ed society. If rich white families knew their daughter was not at risk, who would foot the bill? A bigoted capitalist society can only work if we convince rich white people to pay for the things we can’t afford. That’s why hollywood is leading the environmental charge as well! who can afford to buy a hybrid?

  55. customsoftwaredevelopment Says:

    My goodness! i was impressed, great post!

  56. rodney Says:

    Interesting read.

    Would the statistics be the same in a country like Papua New Guinea?


  57. [...] Bloggaren “Daily Curmudgeonry” (que?) meddelar i sin bloggpost under rubriken “Orgies are safer than driving” bland annat att risken för en kvinna att smittas av HIV efter vaginalt sex med kondom är [...]


  58. Basing your “odds” or chances of catching on a document from 2002 is a bit outdated. As the evolution of society happens faster then we can document it.

    According to the CDC

    “HIV Estimate

    At the end of 2003, an estimated 1,039,000 to 1,185,000 persons in the United States were living with HIV/AIDS, with 24-27% undiagnosed and unaware of their HIV infection.1 ”

    Out of an estimated population of 301,575,438 per the US Census Bureau.

    Which makes the average person with HIV at 0.0033333333333333333333333333333333(ad infinitum)
    percentage of the population or 1 in about 300.

    The global estimated population living with HIV as of late 2006 was about 40 million which compared to about 300,000 as of 1980.

    There are about 67 million new humans on the earth every year. In 1950 there was an estimated global population of 2,520,000,000 with no signs of HIV in society.

    In 60 years we went from 0 to 40 million with a population of about 6.5 billion(which is 0.006153 percent of the population). Keep in mind STD’s spread exponentially based on ratio of infected population to noninfected population.

    So if population is growing at about 9.85 % and HIV is growing at estimates as high as 20% at some point (fairly soon) more people will get infected each year then new people born.

    About 25% of people don’t even know they are infected, which could easily displace your absolute “high vs low risk” metrics and throw all of your statistics out.

    Car crashes kill an estimated 1.2 million people worldwide each year, and injure about forty times this number (WHO, 2004)

    As opposed to HIV which killed almost 2.9 million last year. http://www.avert.org/worldstats.htm

    Globally your chances of dying are higher from HIV.


  59. Interesting stats: maybe I shall be a case-study as an extreme global nomad on the road across the planet, since 1988, and having had sex with locals from Brazil to Nigeria to Yemen to Cambodia to India, etc, etc, it’s true that sex is very safe with a condom … but your last paragraph is incorrect if you look beyond the West then AIDS by unprotected sex is passed to everyone and anyone, not just the groups mentioned. My advice: have sex – just use a rubber – and worry less about death as there’s a million ways to die so just enjoy.

  60. mosaik Says:

    Stuff AIDS. There is chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis, HPV [and the risk of cervical cancer]and Herpes to worry about. In women it is quite possible that at least 3 if not 4 of the above will not show obvious clinical symptoms for a while facilitating transmission to other sexual partners. Not to mention the risk of falling pregnant. If condoms have an only 70% effectiveness rate, that’s still a 30% risk.
    I’ll vouch for that. My daughter was conceived 10 days BEFORE I stopped the oral contraceptive pill. The baby I am currently carrying is the result of having sex twice in six months. With condoms. And emergency contraception. And only one ovary! [But boy does that ovary work well!]. So what’s the mortality rate of being pregnant?

  61. Jez (UK) Says:

    you and your stupid twatty statistics.

    it’s like saying that 35.3% of motor vehicle fatalities are alcohol related,

    therefore 64.7% are due to other things, that’s NEARLY twice as much.

    64.7% – 35.5% = 29.2%

    CONCLUSION:
    if you’re driving a car, you should definitely have a drink first, as you’re 29.3% less likely to have an accident!

  62. harryflaker Says:

    Well said!
    I don’t now about your statistics, but having banged dozens of girls during the last decades in areas they say are seriously affected by HIV without getting it I tenbd to believe your statistics… I’m not really a roulette player – it’s just that I’m a pussy eater and you just dont stick a condom on your tongue, do you? Besides, it’s the taste you’re after…
    Harry

  63. Swineshead Says:

    It’s a bit late for all this optimism – my cock is hanging on by a green string and I’ve got boils all over my balls.

    Nurse?!

  64. raincoaster Says:

    You, my friend, don’t know as many people who go to orgies as I do. It’s a sample size well under 100 million, but it’s got quite a high disease ratio.

  65. extra Says:

    Wow, interesting. :) I think I’d prefer orgies, toh. Anyway, drop by (if you need some extra money).

  66. memomemo Says:

    use condom all the time, ‘better safe than dead’.

  67. Limulus Says:

    Interesting article; thanks for typing it up.

    arcticmyst: please do not spread misinformation about ‘condom pores’; consider for a moment that water molecules are roughly 500x smaller than HIV viral particles and yet a condom does not behave as a sieve.

  68. marlon b., M.Ed. Says:

    Luv the comparison! It’s a convincing argument for the misinformed masses; however, the analysis is a mostly fallacious and skewed piece of work. Good try!

    Terminology is key. I’ll simply address “catching AIDS.” You cannot catch AIDS; it isn’t an airborne virus that’s transmitted by breathing air. You can contract HIV not AIDS via vehicle-borne (person-to-person). AIDS is neither a disease or virus – it’s a syndrome/condition.

    Also, when listing high-risk groups you really should list high-risk behaviors too for carity because your tone is easily interpreted as bigoted. Unfortunately, most folks do not understand the complexities; therefore, I’ll reserve your bigot badge momentarily.

    Question. What’s the odds of orgy participants bitten by Mosquitoes carrying AIDS? How crazy does that sound?

    Answer. Mosquitoes do not transmit HIV! They cannot “catch” HIV; the pathogens do not reproduce in mosquitoes; therefore, cannot transmit HIV unlike Malaria.


  69. [...] post: a sketch pad of daily ideas one of the wordpress blogs has a post called Orgies are safer than driving [...]

  70. Coma Toes Says:

    lol – You haven’t seen the way I drive though!

    Seriously though i’d rather have the car crash than the disease. I always fancied going out with a bang as opposed to going out because of one!

  71. Alina Says:

    An amusing post… but still, I think your odds are a little off. Rationally, I think there are factors that increase the risk that you are not considering, like who are the people who are more likely to participate in orgies and promiscuous sex.

    I would think that if you were to take part in an orgy, you were very likely to have sex with a promiscuous person, who probably screws anything that moves. So therefore, your chances of actually screwing someone who is HIV+ are higher than if u screwed a random person selected from a larger population.

    But hey, I guess my calculations are derived from my own preconceptions about orgies.


  72. [...] April 10th, 2007 at 1:23 pm (dru’s life, Friends, People, Blog, Relationships) That orgies are safer than driving? [...]

  73. Heaps Says:

    Great post.

    Great comments too. I like a little controversy! I especially appreciate the generosity of the many responsible, concerned citizens. Thank you for educating my sorry, ignorant ass!

    Remember everybody, be careful while driving! That shit is dangerous!


  74. [...] 10th, 2007 What sorts of risks should you worry about? My previous post illustrated my surprise that contracting AIDS is much less likely than I thought [STDs are still a [...]

  75. raincoaster Says:

    Alina, your calculations are accurate. I do know people who participate in orgies and 30% of them are HIV positive.

  76. Brian Says:

    It’s rather sad that you try to make it sound acceptable for heterosexual people to engage in reckless sexual behavior like orgies and unprotected sex, while the gays and blacks assume the full responsibility for HIV/AIDS.

    The following statement is especially repulsive:

    “But it’s not true unless your daughter is shagging bi-sexual, black, drug fiend.”

    God may not hate you, but I’m sure he isn’t too fond of your unfounded bias. ;)

  77. Mal Says:

    I’m surprised noone mentions that herpes (I or II) can be contracted through oral sex, and since a high proportion of adults (around 50% and 30% respectively) are carriers, that risk is non negligible. Saying that “The risk of transmitting Herpes type II with a condom is practically 0.” might be true for intercourse, but is simply wrong for oral sex.
    I’d like to know the sources for the stats on AIDS, especially since I believe they are wrong. At least, the odds of transmission through oral sex are way below those of intercourse (wikipedia: factor of 5, most sources admit it is very difficult to calculate), not roughly the same.

  78. TomK Says:

    Interesting article. I remember a bit in the book “Freakonomics” where he discussed the lopsided way we assess risk. We assess it emotionally which is understandable (being about survival and all; so few statisticians on the Serengeti in 30,000 BC!) — so it’s sometimes jarring to look at the *statistical* risk. He quotes someone as saying that we assess risk as Likelihood + Outrage. The more outraged we are at the event, the higher we assess the risk. Folks think planes are riskier because we have so little control in an airplane. We’re packed into little seats, trusting a pilot we’ve never met, and if the DC10 starts to spiral down we can’t rush he cockpit and set things right. We’re helpless, and that outrages us — versus in a car, where (we feel) we have tremendous control. Ergo, planes are riskier than cars emotionally — but safer statistically. (Actually, he adjusts some numbers based on hours-spent-in-each and calls them equal.)

    I imagine if this whole posting were rewritten to remove that disgraceful taint of Pleasure and Sexuality and Delight from it — and instead described fluid exchange among genderless “patients” in a clinical setting by a third party — well first, it would be *boring.* But second, I suspect the outrage would drain right out of it. Our deep cultural presuppositions of risk and wrongness regarding sex just wouldn’t attach.

    And it would never have appeared on Page 1 of Reddit.com.

  79. TomK Says:

    Oh, and — this is my favorite quote so far from this thread.

    Nik wrote:
    “…you’re [sic] conclusion is without a doubt friggin STUPID and i wish you had the guts and [sic] stop hiding behind the statistics”

    It’s so marvelously pre-Enlightenment, it’s like a cognitive antique.

  80. Mal Says:

    PS: Sorry, didn’t realize there was a link to the source for the stats. Now doesn’t the figure on p. 40 show that the odds for a woman having intercourse without condom to be 1/100k, not 1/10M ? That’s a factor of 100x…

  81. bohemianprose Says:

    I cant help to wonder if you wish to give permission to others to be sexually free. Regardless of the risk factors and statistical proof’s of this or that. There are always side effects of being sexual premissive. High abortion rates, other std’s, and lets not forget about the emotional side of things. No harm no foul? I’m not sold. I’ve seen it from the other side as I know many others have too.

  82. hipmanzana Says:

    You make it sound so nice and perfect, but your assumptionts and data seems a little doubtful for me…Don’t get me wrong orgies are fine, but maybe whites are equal than gay men or blacks, poor or rich.

  83. Alcedes Says:

    Fantastic post, indeed, the public education system does push the incorrect idea that if you have sex once you’ll get a million STDs and die. But do you know what the worst STD of all is?

    Babies.

    So always wear a condom!

  84. theelectronicexperiment Says:

    Here’s a statistic on eye-catching blog titles:

    “65% of the time, it works every time.”

    Nice post.

  85. Vlatka Says:

    The only problem with statistics is that it is a science of numbers that could be manipulated to reinforce a certain point of view.

    Statistics is unemotional. Real life isn’t.

    One premise in your article is that all transmission occurs during a consensual act between adults or of an adult’s free will to inject drugs.

    Part of the reason why AIDS is so rampant in Sub Saharan Africa is because lots of transmissions occur through people who, given a choice, would not lead lives they lead and engage in risky sex. Primarily these are sex workers having intercourse with truckers or other migrant workers in the cities. These infected men then bring the disease back to their wives (and others they may be sleeping with)in villages they are from. The women not only have no say whether the condom is used or not, but they cannot reject the intercourse with a husband.

    The end result is that in areas such as Kwazulu Natal in South Africa, the women die of AIDS leaving behind scores of children. These are usually taken care of by some good hearted, but extremely poor woman neighbour.

    This perpetuates even more poverty.(A woman is responsible for feeding 9 instead of 4 children) Poverty breeds anger. When those young men grow up, they move to the cities following the footsteps of their fathers in search of work. Lots of them will be tempted by crime. During a carjacking or a house break in, some men may succumb to their anger and rape and murder. Everyone, regardless of their social status, is affected by this violence. I know, as I have lived in a mansion surrounded by a high wall, spiked with electric wire fence, risking to be carjacked every time I entered and exited the confines of my luxurious home.

    What goes around truly comes around.

    So, let’s not delude ourselves that such a big issue as AIDS has nothing to do with us, white, well to do suburbanites.

  86. Architeuthis Says:

    The most enlightening thing about this post is the way it “outs” idiots via their responses. Half of them sound like they didn’t even read the full text of the post before rushing to post a snap judgment, e.g., accusing the author of encouraging people to have unprotected sex? What on earth? His entire point was about the odds of contraction via protected sex.

    Or how about the one above from Vlatka–starts with a completely incorrect statement about the author’s premise, then goes on to explain the tragedy of AIDS in Africa as if none of us had ever read a news article about AIDS before.

    Your odds of contracting HIV just might be greater than your odds of finding well-written and logically consistent rebuttals to controversial blog posts -__-

  87. chet3 Says:

    A brilliant post in terms of getting a lot of people to read it…controvery sells big time! Always has always will.

    However, the post and most all comments leave out the more important stuff that statistics can’t touch… emotional baggage, the moral decline of a culture etc…
    An orgy or random sexual encounters may provide temporary pleasure – but these selfish acts surely are not done in love for your neighbor and therefore violate one of the two greatest principles in life and lead to the destruction of societies…see the Romans before their fall…sexually dysfunctional, a distortion of beauty in the arts, and a wellfare state – sound familiar?

    As a footnote – everybody drive careful out there – lots of people driving very large weapons that they have no idea the destructive power of and if you are driving an aluminum can and get hit in the driver side by one of them with decent velocity – game over – you lose!

    • RedShift Says:

      > An orgy or random sexual encounters may provide
      > temporary pleasure – but these selfish acts surely are
      > not done in love for your neighbor and therefore violate
      > one of the two greatest principles in life and lead to
      > the destruction of societies…

      Obviously, we’re not attending the same orgies.

  88. Gabriel Says:

    I mean Im not saying I do those things, but its life, and in life we do these things whether now or later in life.

    Gabriel :)


  89. [...] had been living with AIDS for 12 years now. his partner just died of it last year. so, when i read this today,  i was glad to see that someone had taken the time to put some numbers behind it. [...]

  90. agreen7501 Says:

    You have got to be stuuuuupppppiiiiiddddd STD’s are no real is way to get over an STD and many can lead to death if untreated

    P.s.

    now a days there are so many men who are undercover gay that you really cant tell whose gay or straight so to be on the safe side dont have sex anytype of sex envolving another guy


  91. [...] April 11th, 2007 · No Comments Belépéskor nézem a wordpress főoldalt, és a napi hot postsból ez lenne az egyik. [...]

  92. Gabriel Says:

    Im mean like I said I would not do those things and you have to look at the other person and if they do not want help that you have to leave them alone and just move on in life.

    Im glad that Im waiting.

    Gabriel

  93. sloppyjoe72 Says:

    Wow. Good to know. I guess this means I don’t have to wear a seat belt at my next orgy. ;)

  94. stufforama Says:

    87.2% of statistics are made up on the spot anyway. :)

  95. 47project Says:

    Herpes is the more common downer in Orgies.

  96. Travis Says:

    you failed to factor in the gravity of the consequence to the (alleged) low probablity that you’ve posted.

  97. harryflaker Says:

    It seems you’r assuming that anyone having ‘unprotected’ sex with someone infected with HIV would inevietably get infected. Actually this is far from true! Not only is there a difference in the infected party’s ability to transmit the infection to partners but there is also a difference in suceptibility. You are right, however, when stating that the risk to contract the infection from straight sex is much lower for a man than for a woman… (Nature doesn’t care about political correctness!)

  98. Vlatka Says:

    I believe that I have encountered my very first troll. Thank you for the experience Mr. Architeuthis.

  99. Mirch Says:

    what are the statistics for dying (or becoming HIV postive) from an orgie while driving?


  100. [...] someone with AIDS. Of course, the article is a counter-intuitive statistical trick similar to my post that AIDS is difficult to transmit. Where are the hordes of morons complaining about his book? [...]


  101. Herpes is the biggest worry for me.


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